NE v. Chicago: Final Preview

As a New England Revolution blog, it seems appropriate to consider the second leg of their first-round, post-season against the Chicago Fire apart from the rest of the weekend's action. Right off the bat, I feel compelled to note that my griping about this one not being televised has, happily, been proved mistaken. This one will be on national TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday on Fox Soccer Channel (again, Huzzah!).

So, what do I expect to see Saturday?

The first question is what does Shalrie Joseph's suspension (which has baffled some observers - OK, and me) do to the Revs’ prospects? Lump me into the crowd - some of whom can be found here - that leans toward nothing fatal. The Revs proved they can win without Joseph down the regular season stretch, but that's not to say nothing is lost through his absence. This arguably requires his team split his talent for two-way play between two players to Joseph's one; put another way, they have plenty of people capable of covering Joseph's defensive duties, but struggle to replace him on the offensive side.

Or do they?

I'm a big fan of Daniel Hernandez and, therefore, view this as his chance for him to come out from under Josephs’ shadow and stake a claim on this position for next season should the Grenandian moves abroad. Given the Revs' need to score goals, I don't think they can afford to "split" Joseph, or to cover him with two defensive midfield players and rely on fewer players to score. To me, that means they've got to run with Hernandez and hope it works out.

The other question mark comes with Clint Dempsey. Last I read, his ankle ain’t broke, but that’s not the full story here. The back-story begins with an assumption I’m seeing passed among the professional pundits here or there - specifically, that the Revs have "too many weapons" to fail to win this series. On paper, this holds up, but having "too many weapons" doesn't matter so much if they're misfiring. That, so far as I can tell, has been the reality this season.

It's here that Dempsey comes in. The Revs can be fairly predictable in the attack - e.g. dump down flank, cross ball, slam it in goal...except when they don't - which makes Dempsey's capacity to shake up that formula by running at players vital - especially against a Chicago team that defends pretty well. If Dempsey's not "on" or if he's not healthy, Saturday's game gets a lot harder right away. If Pat Noonan is not there, or if Jose Manuel Abundis can't spice up the offensive mix and, most crucially, if Dempsey’s injured or out of sorts, the Revs are stuck riding Taylor Twellman, who is a bit of a one-trick pony; a good one, yes, but a one-trick pony all the same. This doesn't make advancing impossible, but certainly makes the path to doing so harder to see.

Overall, I'm about 40-60 on the Revs moving past Chicago to the Conference final. As noted above, I don’t see Joseph’s absence as a defining problem, though the actual game may play out to prove me wrong. As I see it, the problem comes with scoring goals against a Chicago team that defends well enough and only has to prevent New England from scoring to advance. So long as New England can keep Chicago from scoring, they’ll only really have to score one goal - something I can more readily see them doing. And if the Revs can take this series to penalties, I’d bump their chances of advancing to 60-40 in favor; Reis is pretty good on PKs.

I'll close with an altered game-day line-up. As always, this is more prediction than wish: I'd prefer to see Jose Cancela start, but don’t think we will barring many, many injuries.

GK: Matt Reis
D: Jay Heaps, Michael Parkhurst, Avery John
M: Steve Ralston (wide right), Daniel Hernandez (on top the D), Andy Dorman (back in the middle), Clint Dempsey (hole behind the forwards), Khano Smith (mainly to keep Jaqua in check, but always good on counters once the Revs are running).
F: Taylor Twellman, Jose Manuel Abundis.

Subs: Pat Noonan for either Dempsey or Abundis - though probably the latter first if the former does OK. If and when the Revs score, Joe Franchino can come on anytime to help with defense or on the left; ditto Jeff Larentowicz and James Riley apply as well, but only if they come into the midfield. If the Revs have scored only one - Cancela should come in at the half; if they’ve failed to score at all, he should come on at the half at the latest. Who he replaces depends on who needs replacing. Franchino should come on with Cancela, which would entail replacing Smith and kicking Dorman out to the left; Franchino would focus on defense.

OK, that's it for my pre-game quarterbacking. Much as I think their chances aren't the best, I believe the Revs can do it; I'm just a little tepid as to whether they will.