Playoff Preview: Houston v. Chivas

Welcome to the first of two playoff previews. I’ll post my thoughts on the Eastern Conference first-round tomorrow, but, today, I’ll be picking at the Western Conference match-ups; the post below deals only with the Houston Dynamo v. Chivas USA, but FC Dallas v. Colorado Rapids will follow shortly. By comparing plausible-to-likely starting elevens (not always easy), overall rosters, recent games, season series, and home and away records, I hope to make some sense of these match-ups. (NOTE: The source material for all the above comes from the league standings, the respective team rosters (Houston and Chivas) and each team's regular season schedules (Houston and Chivas).)

As not a few people have pointed out, though, this is anything but a mathematical process.

And, before going any further, I’ve got to thank Mr. Fish of Kin of Fish for reminding me of the preview format I’ll be using below (he used it here).

Houston Dynamo (2) v. Chivas USA (3)
Season Series: Split: Houston one once (@ Houston, 3-1, 07/08); Chivas won once (@ Chivas, 3-2, 08/26); two draws (@ Chivas, 1-1, 6/28 and @ Houston, 0-0, 9/17)

Regular Season Stats
Houston Dynamo: Overall, 11-8-13; Home, 8-3-5; Away, 3-5-8; GF/A, 44/40 +4; Last 10: LLTLWTTWTT
Chivas USA: Overall, 10-9-13; Home, 7-2-7; Away, 3-2-6; GF/A, 45-42 +3; Last 10: TWLTWTWLLT

Sorry to jump in again, but before jumping into each team’s starting eleven, a word of caution seems wise. While I follow the league more closely than most, some starting elevens are easier to figure than most. Chivas USA serves as an example of a slippery side: they fielded a more or less different eleven in each of their past five games (LINK, LINK, LINK, LINK, LINK). If anyone has a better bead on who Chivas will start, by all means, correct what I’ve got here. Between getting it 100% correct and getting close enough for gummint work, I’m going with the latter.

Getting back to it, here are the starting elevens we could very well see this Saturday:

Houston: GK, Pat Onstad; D, Eddie Robinson, Wade Barrett, Craig Waibel, Adrian Serioux; M, Brian Mullan, Dwayne DeRosario, Brad Davis, Ricardo Clark; F, Brian Ching, Alejandro Moreno.
(Subs: Ryan Cochrane, Kevin Goldthwaite, Kelly Gray, Paul Dalglish, Stuart Holden, Chris Wondolowski.)

Chivas USA: GK, Brad Guzan; D, Lawson Vaughn, Claudio Suarez, Tim Regan, Jonathan Bornstein; M, Sacha Kjelstan, Jesse Marsch (?), Francisco Mendoza, Juan Pablo Garcia; F, Ante Razov, Jesus Morales.
(Subs: Matt Taylor, Drew Helm, Johnny Garcia, Francisco Mendoza, Orlando Perez, Preston Burpo, Brent Whitfield, Carlos Llamosa, Jason Hernandez.)

And here’s where “Mr. Fish’s method” comes in: comparing the teams at each position to see who comes out on top.

Goalkeeper - Onstad v. Guzan: Onstad’s steady trumps Guzan’s sound; I count the oldster as a better overall ‘keeper. Advantage: HOUSTON.

Midfield: When they’re clicking, Chivas plays very pretty through the middle, which suggests they’re doing something right. Against that, though, Houston just has more weapons: if Mullan’s speed isn’t working on the right, Brad Davis can start shelling from the left; and between them runs Dwayne DeRosario, indisputably one of the league’s best threats. Chivas’ situation grows more precarious if the dome-rattling meted out by RSL’s Atiba Harris keeps Jesse Marsch off the field. Advantage: HOUSTON.

Houston O v. Chivas D: An interesting situation pertains here. As Steve Davis points out in his preview for ESPN, Suarez and Llamosa share 74 years on earth between them. That’s a lot of wisdom, but very little speed. In their favor, though, Houston’s forward pairing relies more on power than pace; Moreno could pose some problems, but, let’s face it, there are better finishers in the league. I expect Bradley will do something like what I’ve got above, pairing one of the oldsters with a younger player like Tim Regan and go with man-marking - and that will be enough. One thing to watch, though: in recent games, Paul Dalglish has had a run at forward; that could change a thing or two. Still...Advantage: CHIVAS

Houston D v. Chivas O: Houston’s got a pretty sound defense - especially with Onstad as a back-stop. But Chivas does have some overall firepower to fluster them. I read somewhere that Razov looks a bit rusty, which doesn’t bode well for Chivas. Others will have to step up - and from all over the field at that; a kid like Jonathan Bornstein suddenly crosses over from “D to O” and things get interesting. Chivas’ chief threat to Houston’s D comes up the gut; Houston’s flanks are pretty solid. Advantage: PUSH.

Subs: Both teams have tolerable depth, at least in defensive positions. No great, offensive hopes lurk on the bench for either side, anyway. But with versatile players like Orlando Perez and Kelly Gray available for cover, neither side is hurting. Advantage: PUSH.

SUMMARY: I expect that Houston will win this series. The X-factor, as I see it, is Chivas defensive strength at home, which combines nicely with Houston’s occasional offensive stammer. If Chivas can pull off a result at the Home Depot and bunker like hell away in Houston, they can pull off an upset - and that’s certainly not beyond them. But, if they don’t get off to a good start - I’m thinking a two-goal advantage would do it - Houston will drag them down on the return leg.