MLS Cup Preview...Plus My Consciousness...

I knocked out my MLS Cup preview and submitted it to Write On Sports, who kindly posted it. I had intended on disclosing my preference for a New England win, but I'd also like to think I played the analysis straight enough that it didn't color the commentary. I'll leave that for others to judge.

Here in my playpen, though, I'm under no such restraints....so let's get to it.

In a phrase, I'm nervous about this one...and maybe my innate pessimism helped with the balance.

In all honesty, I think Houston has the edge. Between a watered-down home-field advantage and overall better health and play from their key players - think Dwayne DeRosario, Brian Mullan, Brad Davis; and now add Paul Dalglish, who honestly looks to have found his feet on the field (cooler weather probably helped) - they just seem to be clicking. Brian Ching remains steady - though I'd argue unspectacular - but that hardly matters; Dalglish's takes attention away from Ching, which will make him more dangerous. Lord knows the guy is already a handful physically.

Speaking of which, that's one of my bigger areas of concern: can the, ahem, "modestly-sized" Michael Parkhurst keep up with the much-larger Ching (and can I stop inserting needless hyphens?). Or do they stick Jay "Spawning Salmon" Heaps or the better-matched Avery "Crusher" John on Ching? If Nicol goes that way, what happens to the defensive shape? I don't know such things, but do take comfort in knowing that Parkhurst seems to match up well enough against damn-near everyone the opposition throws at him - what's more, he does it without fouling. Maybe he's just that smart and composed.

On the upside, I find Houston's defense a touch porous. Put more directly, I'm fairly certain New England can score on them. And, given their defense, New England taking a lead could spell doom; they're nothing like as fragile at the back as either Chivas USA or Colorado. Then again, there's that fine Revolution tradition of choking in the final to consider. I think Jeff Bradley did the math in his MLS Cup talking points: 233 scoreless minutes in Cup final play.

Against that, the best news coming out of New England this post-season is that Taylor Twellman is scoring; one could even say he's on a hot streak (yes...one could say that). I find it enormously relieving anyway. Word is that Clint Dempsey will play and that's probably a good thing, though one has to wonder what the two-and-a-quarter layoff did to his match sharpness. On the other hand, it's one game and adrenaline is one of the more useful hormones the body produces....we shall see, we shall see.

In truth, it's the general fatigue in New England that causes most concern: there are enough strains and pulls on this squad to make an octogenarian point and laugh. Even if, say, Steve Ralston can play, how much can he bring with his wounded calf? And do you really want a player running at less than full speed trying to chase Brad Davis and Wade Barrett? That same equation pertains to an unnervingly large number of match-ups all over the park.

Finally, there's Ricardo Clark's suspension: the more I weigh this one, the less it looms for me (probably why I buried it in the Write On piece). With this one, it's not so much that Houston loses something as they fail to reap the benefits of Clark being on the field...yes, I'm aware that's subtle to the point of silliness, but bear with me. By this I mean, they lose Clark's ball-winning, a good deal of smart running and, arguably, efficient passing. But they'll still have a ball-winner in the middle of the park: the vital part of that role will remain the same. And, realistically, Houston has the offensive weapons to menace the Revolution's goal without Clark. I raised the question of continuity - e.g. the notion that players will be familiar with Clark in that role - and that could play a role, but, honestly, these are professionals; if it matters that much, they probably shouldn't be professionals.

Then there's the far shorter travel time, the Houston fans being closer, etc.

All in all, I have to call New England the underdogs. Does this suit them? I don't know. The best thing they can do is push for an early lead; Frank Dell'Appa says they'll do that, provided they've got the players they want. I say players be hanged and try to do it regardless. Yeah, it will bore all you neutrals to tears, but I'll take a little cynicism if it means a title (yes, that's a loathsome attitude).

Four days to go....